Kudos to a Handful of Countries who Updated their NDCs

A decade has almost passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. I remember my pure joy in witnessing its adoption based on an unprecedent consensus in international negotiations during COP21 in Paris. It was a feeling of genuine hope for the future. A decade has passed since then. The tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement will be “celebrated” at COP30 this November. Are we on the right path? Will we have any viable reason to justify a celebration of the global agreement designed to guide the international community for decades to come? Clearly, celebrations would be justified if we are indeed on the path to reaching the goals agreed to in the Agreement. Among the most important goals of the Agreement is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 °C  above pre-industrial levels or “well below 2 °C ” in order to prevent the devastating consequences of climate change. 

At a time when there are so many doubts in attaining the 1.5 °C  goal, countries seem to be alarmingly relaxed at preparing ambitious and timely national plans to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. In line with the legally binding Paris Agreement, nations are expected to submit their “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) every five years and share with each other how they plan to reduce overall global emissions. These plans are the backbone of the convention and are essential to track whether we are on the path towards a low carbon future. Nations were expected to submit their updated NDCs by 10 February 2025. Yet, only a handful of countries submitted their plans by the deadline. 13 of the 195 parties submitted their NDCs by the deadline. The 182 who missed the deadline represent 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy (Carbon Brief, 2025). 

This year’s NDCs carry critical importance as they are an indication of global temperatures by 2035. National Commitments submitted this year may be the last chance the global community has to peacefully avoid crossing several tipping points over the next decade. The deadline to submit NDCs has inevitably been postponed to September, 2025. This late submission will give the UNFCCC less than two months to review all the NDCs and to make an evaluation as to where we stand globally in limiting global temperatures. It seems that the real concern is not timely submission of these vital documents but their level of ambition. Lets hope that nations will update their national plans with high ambition levels before the COP30 kicks off in November.