Mainstreaming Oceans at COP31

As COP31 approaches oceans are moving from the margins to the center of global climate negotiations, reflecting a broader shift in how climate challenges are understood. Set against the rapidly warming Mediterranean, this moment raises a critical question: will oceans and

marine ecosystems finally take a leading role in shaping climate action?

Oceans are increasingly gaining recognition within global climate negotiations. This recognition reflects a broader shift in how climate agreements is understood. Oceans are expected to take a significant role in global climate discussions at COP31. The conference will take place in Antalya, on the shores of the Mediterranean which is considered a climate “hot spot” because it is warming faster than the global average.

The Mediterranean is a semi-enclosed sea which means heat builds up more easily and salinity also changes faster. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent. Water scarcity is increasing. Marine biodiversity is declining and invasive species are increasing.  Extreme events are also becoming more common. Human pressure adds to the problem. The region supports a wide range of economic activities linked to the blue economy. Coastal tourism is a major driver as it has a significant contribution to national income and employment in many of the countries in the basin. Fisheries and aquaculture are also important. In some areas, overfishing and intensive fish farming put stress on marine ecosystems. Maritime transport is another key activity with the Mediterranean as one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. Coastal construction, ports, energy infrastructure, ship building and ship breaking are other important economic activities. These activities put ecosystems under constant pressure and reduce their ability to adapt to climate change.

This setting for a global conference in one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change carries more than a symbolic significance and raises an important question. Will the role of oceans and marine ecosystems stand out at COP31? To explore this, it is worth taking a brief look at how the oceans narrative has evolved within global climate talks.

The Development of the Ocean–Climate Narrative

The case for including oceans in climate frameworks ranges from scientific to economic and social justice issues.  Oceans act as a carbon sink by absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Very briefly, there is a sustained rise in ocean temperatures which accelerates coral bleaching, intensifies storms and contributes to sea level rise. Climate change also alters ocean chemistry through acidification which has detrimental impacts on marine ecosystems.  Changes to the world’s oceans also carry consequences to human well-being as well. Displacement of coastal populations by sea level rise in the absence of adequate adaptation is a serious risk. Hundreds of millions may be exposed to coastal flooding and extreme weather. Around 500 million people depend on small scale fisheries for their livelihoods. While global seafood demand is projected to rise significantly, supply may be decreasing of aquatic foods thus increasing global food security risks.

Advancing the Ocean–Climate Agenda Across COPs

Recognizing the need to include oceans in climate agreements, a highly coordinated global ocean community mobilized in the years leading up to COP21. They advocated through formal submissions, high-level engagement and a growing presence within COP spaces. A key milestone was the launch of “Oceans Day” at COP21 which brought together over 400 participants and more than 30 high-level leaders. A day entirely dedicated to oceans during the UNFCCC COP reflected a growing recognition of the ocean’s place within the global climate agenda

From coordinated advocacy to global recognition of oceans within the Paris Agreement

The symbolic success of these coordinated advocacy efforts was the inclusion of oceans in the preamble of the Paris Agreement. Oceans were officially recognized as part of the planet’s carbon sinks. This was a game changer as it marked the formal acknowledgment of oceans within a global climate treaty. This milestone not only elevated the visibility of marine ecosystems in climate governance but also helped open the door for ocean-based solutions to be considered within national climate planning.

Island States were at Center Stage at COP23

The momentum at COP21 translated into more concrete institutional progress in the years that followed. Oceans gained new visibility in the climate process especially at COP23 in 2017 under the presidency of Fiji. Both the blue zone and the green zone were full of events and celebrations focusing on oceans.  These included an Ocean Action Day, the launch of the Ocean Pathway Partnership and the Talanoa Dialogue. The Dialogue is a unique initiative launched at COP23 based on a traditional Fijian approach that emphasizes storytelling. The exchanges of countries and non-state actors became an important tool in shaping ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement.

At COP25, the launch of the Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue created a formal space within the UNFCCC process to systematically address ocean-related issues. Networks and initiatives on oceans and climate change increased. At COP26 where oceans were addressed across negotiations and side events.  At COP27, focus was on adaptation and resilience. The establishment of the Loss and Damage fund was promising for coastal countries facing impacts of climate impacts. At COP28, the first Global Stocktake reinforced the role of nature-based solutions.

The “Blue COP” at Belem

We can see a clear shift in how oceans were handled at COP30. In previous COPs the issues around oceans primarily took place in side events or thematic discussions. In Belem, they were increasingly integrated into the main negotiation and policy conversations at the blue zone.  The institutional visibility of oceans strengthened through the continuation of the Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue under the UNFCCC. This helped include ocean issues within the formal climate processes as opposed to the more traditional voluntary initiatives or external coalitions. Critically, oceans were linked to priority climate agendas such as coastal resilience and adaptation, the sustainable blue economy, food security, biodiversity protection and nature-based solutions. However,  no ocean-specific outcomes were agreed upon.

The Blue NDC

France and Brazil jointly announced the creation of an Ocean Taskforce on Blue NDC Implementation in Belem. This is a global mechanism designed to accelerate the integration of ocean-based solutions into national climate plans. The initiative was first introduced at the Oceans Conference in Nice, then endorsed at a High-Level Ocean Ministerial during COP30 by Belgium, Cambodia, Canada, Indonesia, Portugal, and Singapore. It was further supported by Australia, Chile, Fiji, Madagascar, Mexico, Kenya, Palau, Seychelles and the United Kingdom. Participating countries are working together to include ocean action into national climate strategies.  Once national climate plans have oceans specific goals it may be an opportunity to mobilize financing as well. COP31 may be an opportunity to have more coastal countries join the initiative.

The High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy

The Panel is a coalition of heads of states co-chaired by Norway and Palau. Members countries are Australia, Canada, Chile, Fiji, France, Ghana, Indonesia, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Norway, Palau, Portugal, Seychelles, United Kingdom and United States. It aims to position oceans as a core solution to global challenges, including climate change, food security, and economic development. The panel plays an important role in advancing the global ocean agenda. It has produced numerous reports through a large expert group of around 190 experts from countries worldwide, regardless of their membership in the panel. Notably, it appears that experts from Türkiye are not represented within this group.

Although the panel operates outside the formal UNFCCC structure, its work contributes to bringing oceans into the core of climate discussions.  Its recommendations and political leadership have influenced national climate plans and COP discussions, helping shift oceans from a peripheral topic to a more integrated part of global climate action.

How Turkish Stakeholders Can Shape the Ocean–Climate Agenda

As oceans gain ground within the UNFCCC process, the question is who helps shape the agenda. Turkey is well-positioned to bring ocean issues more firmly into the center of climate discussions at COP31. As for Turkish stakeholders, this is a timely opportunity to be actively engaged with the global ocean’s community. It is practical and has lower costs compared to other COPs. Turkey’s geographic reality alone makes this engagement essential.

Many initiatives and actions come to mind. A strong first step would be more active engagement in international platforms and initiatives. Türkiye has an experienced scientific community working on marine ecosystems, oceanography, and climate impacts. Expanding marine observation systems and joining global research collaborations would increase both visibility and impact. This would help bring Turkish seas more firmly into international research agendas, opening the door to greater funding and joint action.

As a party to the Bucharest Convention and the Barcelona Convention, Türkiye is well positioned to act as a bridge. It can help align regional commitments with global ocean and climate goals while also strengthening cooperation between the Black Sea and Mediterranean basins.

Turkish private sector and finance actors can play an increasingly important role in ocean-related initiatives by aligning investment, innovation and industry practices with the emerging blue economy agenda. Her maritime position between the Mediterranean, the Aegean and the Black Sea provides opportunities on sustainable maritime transport, climate-resilient coastal tourism and sustainable fisheries management.

By strengthening regional cooperation on marine protection, nature-based solutions, climate adaptation, and blue economy strategies, Turkish stakeholders have an opportunity to expand their role in the global ocean and climate agenda. 

As Australia will lead the negotiations at COP31, it will have significant influence to elevate marine and ocean issues. It will also likely shape the marine agenda given its close ties with Pacific Island states. Yet, the question remains on how Turkey and Australia will share responsibilities in advancing the ocean-climate agenda. The exact focus will become clearer in the coming months.